KEVIN Rudd faces the defeat of up to three bills and the deferral of another in the Senate this week but could still strengthen his hand against the opposition via a new inquiry into the Godwin Grech affair.
The government's emissions trading scheme, health insurance budget changes, student amenity fees and the alcopops tax are all scheduled to go to the vote this week, but only the final measure has the numbers to pass unamended. The Coalition and crossbenchers' first priority will be to scuttle Labor's flagship Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in the upper house, where the government lacks a majority.
The move will raise the stakes for both the government and opposition, handing the Prime Minister a potential future double-dissolution trigger and further pressuring the Coalition over its response to the climate change challenge.
Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's plan to negotiate changes later this year, rather than be forced to an early poll by a second rejection of the bill, has alienated his Coalition partners.
Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce yesterday declared he was "not going to compromise" on the ETS.
He and other Nationals senators have already threatened to abstain or cross the floor rather than accept a Coalition backflip on another controversial issue - the alcopops excise increase. Any such defection will make no difference to the outcome of this week's vote on the tax hike but will further undermine Mr Turnbull's leadership.
The Liberals have, however, drawn a line in the sand over the government's budget cuts to the private health insurance rebate and the reintroduction of student union fees, opposing both measures. Labor will struggle to strike deals with the Greens, Family First senator Steve Fielding and independent Nick Xenophon, who collectively hold the Senate balance of power, in time to pass the bills this week.
On the private health budget changes, Senator Fielding is holding out for more generous family-income thresholds for the means-tested rebate, the Greens oppose increases to the Medicare levy surcharge, and Senator Xenophon wants to first see a Productivity Commission inquiry into the issue.
Senator Fielding also has reservations about a government bill to reintroduce a student fee for university amenities. "Students in particular are really feeling the pinch at the moment and I am worried that this additional compulsory fee will place even greater pressure on them," he said.
Senator Xenophon is separately lobbying the opposition to support a motion to delay the passage of a separate health budget cut, also listed for debate this week, which would cap the "safety net" payments to cataract patients and women using obstetric or IVF services. The Coalition is expected to decide its final position on the Medicare safety net bill at tomorrow's joint partyroom meeting.
The opposition will, however, need the support of Senator Xenophon, or other crossbenchers, if it is to check or influence the government's planned referral of the Coalition's contact with Treasury official Mr Grech to a privileges committee this week.
Mr Turnbull has been embarrassed by revelations that he and deputy Liberal Senate leader Eric Abetz met Mr Grech before a Senate hearing at which the official was a witness, raising questions about whether the testimony on the OzCar affair was stage-managed.
Liberal senator George Brandis, who chairs the privileges committee, yesterday said the Coalition would decide whether to back the inquiry when the terms of reference were released. But Senator Joyce told the Ten Network that a proper inquiry "would be worth supporting".
